Home > Categories > Analysying and Valuing Fixed Income securities

Analysying and Valuing Fixed Income securities

Analysis of RECL Tax – Free bonds

The effective interest rate analysis of the bond is as follows:

Income slab Income tax slab Effective Coupon
2 – 5 lacs 10% 8.578%
5 – 10 lacs 20% 9.650%
Above 10 lacs 30% 11.029%

Across all public as well as private sector banks the maximum annualised return offered on Fixed Deposits is 8.77% p.a.

And PPF offers a tax free return of 8.8% to its subscribers. So return on these bonds can be considered as pretty much competitive in comparison to the available fixed income option for retail investors.

NOTE: Although interest on application money (if refunded) is only 5% but it is not a matter of concern as investors can apply in the issue using ASBA facility.

Investors may not find this offering that attractive just by looking at the return offered by way of interest income only. The other factor which should be considered is making a profit by selling the security in secondary market. As per the term sheet the bonds will be listed on both BSE and NSE and have no lock in period.

Valuation of 10 year bond (using DCF method) @ (10 year reference rate of GOI security + applicable spread for relevant tenor on AAA rated security)

10 yr reference rate of G-sec: 8.36% p.a.

Credit spread applicable on 10 yr AAA rated bond: 66 bps

Hence, benchmark yield (Reference rate + Credit spread) = 9.02%

Bond 7.72% RECL 2022 10 year Tax free
Duration 10
Periodicity 1
Allotment Date (Assumed) 15-Dec-12
Maturity Date 14-Dec-22
Referance rate 8.84%
Coupon for calculating trading profit 7.22%

Valuation:

Income slab Income tax slab Effective Coupon Effective Coupon for calculating trading profit Valuation @ Benchmark yield
2 – 5 lacs 10% 8.578% 8.022% 93.60
5 – 10 lacs 20% 9.650% 9.025% 100.03
Above 10 lacs 30% 11.029% 10.314% 108.30

Note: For the above valuation the coupon has been considered as 7.22% rather than 7.72% p.a. because as stated in the offer documents the coupon of 7.72% is only offered to primary retail investors. For all the investments made through secondary market the coupon will be 7.22% p.a.

Scenario analysis of various possible benchmark yields –

Benchmark yield
Tax Bracket 8.90% 8.93% 8.96% 8.99% 9.02% 9.05% 9.08% 9.11% 9.14%
10% 94.34 94.16 93.97 93.79 93.60 93.42 93.24 93.05 92.87
20% 100.80 100.61 100.42 100.22 100.03 99.84 99.65 99.46 99.27
30% 109.11 108.91 108.70 108.50 108.30 108.09 107.89 107.69 107.49

From the above analysis it can be construed that investors have significant opportunity of making trading gains by applying in the public issue.

As with all trading calls, there are few concerns associated with these trading call too. These are enumerated below:

1. November inflation data is still awaited and will be released on 12 December 2012, if there is a rise in inflation rate in November over October 12 there can be increase in yield on 10 year GOI security which will in turn result in increase in benchmark yield thereby bringing down the valuations. October inflation figures saw a downtrend and WPI was seen at a 10 month low.

2. Rising fiscal deficit is also pushing inflationary expectations up. Here is the excerpt from a statement made by RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarna on 03 Dec 12 –

"Fiscal deficit is somewhere in the region of 5.5 per cent or so. The government estimates that it will bring it to 5.3 per cent, but quite some distance from the 2.5 per cent- benchmark achieved in 2008,"

"That’s creating some stresses from the inflationary point as well as from the point of resources going into finance government consumption,"

3. Mid quarter review on monetary policy is also due on 18th December 12 and it is yet not clear that whether RBI will go for the rate cut or not. In case of rate cut yield on 10 year GOI security will ease and will result in increased valuations for this bond. Other way round is also possible.

On an overall basis the bond seems to be a good option for investments by retail investors. And pro rata allotment can be expected if application is made as oversubscription will be there.

Connect with Kotak on icon_fb.png icon_tw.png icon_yt.png icon_in.png icon_ok.png

DISCLAIMER:
This communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system permanently. The recipient acknowledges that Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to completeness and accuracy. Before opening and accessing the attachment, if any, please check and scan for virus.

Advertisements
Categories: Categories
  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: